BUMS MAY SQUEAK ..
It`s just like old times. For an unbroken period of 27 years Southampton Football Club maintained a place in the top echelon of English football until, under the tutelage of one Mr. Redknapp, relegation finally happened. You know Mr. Redknapp, the self-confessed `most disorganised person in the world, can`t use a computer, don`t know what an e-mail is and my dog Rosie runs my Monaco bank account for me.` He`s just ensured the relegation of Queens Park Rangers and was at Portsmouth when the rot set in and which has now led that club to operate next season in the fourth tier, aka League Two.
But for all of Southampton`s 27 seasons in the top flight, almost all of them were spent struggling to avoid relegation and that meant that the default condition of Saints fans was one of almost perpetual anxiety to the extent that the very low reaches of the Premier League became our spiritual home. This season has seen a return to the Premier League after years of fighting our way back from adventures in League One and the Championship and as I write the Saints occupy 13th place in the Premier League with just three games to go.
Now you would think that, having accumulated 39 points and a healthy(ish) goal difference, Saints fans would relax in the virtual certainty that the club has retained its Premier League status for next season. But not a bit of it, for our default condition means that our collective bums may squeak until it is mathematically certain that we will survive.
There is much discussion and speculation in the fans forum over the question `Will we survive?` And you almost get the feeling that at least some of the faithful might actually prefer relegation to the backwaters of the Championship if only to escape the perpetual anxiety that comes with being in our Premier League spiritual home.
But the statistical reality indicates that the probability of getting relegated on the 39 points we currently have is around a measly 1%; the probability of getting relegated if we pick up just one more point is 0.1%, if we get to 41 points the probability reduces to just 0.05%, whereas if we win one more game or draw all the remaining three then it will be impossible for us to be relegated at all.
Two things, however. The first is that, statistically, 2.3% of all statistically based predictions may, under certain unpredictable circumstances, prove to be incorrect and the second, of course, is that no manner of statistical evidence will prevent bums devoted to the red and white cause continuing to squeak in the time-honoured tradition of being a Saints fan. It is, it seems, as ever was.
But for all of Southampton`s 27 seasons in the top flight, almost all of them were spent struggling to avoid relegation and that meant that the default condition of Saints fans was one of almost perpetual anxiety to the extent that the very low reaches of the Premier League became our spiritual home. This season has seen a return to the Premier League after years of fighting our way back from adventures in League One and the Championship and as I write the Saints occupy 13th place in the Premier League with just three games to go.
Now you would think that, having accumulated 39 points and a healthy(ish) goal difference, Saints fans would relax in the virtual certainty that the club has retained its Premier League status for next season. But not a bit of it, for our default condition means that our collective bums may squeak until it is mathematically certain that we will survive.
There is much discussion and speculation in the fans forum over the question `Will we survive?` And you almost get the feeling that at least some of the faithful might actually prefer relegation to the backwaters of the Championship if only to escape the perpetual anxiety that comes with being in our Premier League spiritual home.
But the statistical reality indicates that the probability of getting relegated on the 39 points we currently have is around a measly 1%; the probability of getting relegated if we pick up just one more point is 0.1%, if we get to 41 points the probability reduces to just 0.05%, whereas if we win one more game or draw all the remaining three then it will be impossible for us to be relegated at all.
Two things, however. The first is that, statistically, 2.3% of all statistically based predictions may, under certain unpredictable circumstances, prove to be incorrect and the second, of course, is that no manner of statistical evidence will prevent bums devoted to the red and white cause continuing to squeak in the time-honoured tradition of being a Saints fan. It is, it seems, as ever was.
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